Everyone remembers when eccentric former software mogul, now crypto enthusiast and US presidential hopeful on the run, John McAfee predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million by 2020. This was in July 2017, when the coin was valued at $1,800.
He, and his gentleman’s bits, must have felt pretty confident in that prediction as less than six months later Bitcoin was ten times that value at a new all-time high. But, as is the nature of Bitcoin, it has in the time since he made the bet of eating his own junk on live TV, almost fallen back to that original figure in one of its volatile swings.
Bitcoin predictions are like that though; they can be as wild and volatile as the price they are trying to peg down. Yet, they persist today with a multitude of commentators throwing in their two sense when they can.
Predictions usually only surface when Bitcoin is on the rise; having seen the way this thing can move upwards, it becomes quite the game to put a pin in where it will stop.
We have seen the outlandish – from McAfee; we have seen the calculated – from Dan Moorehead who says Bitcoin can reach $42,000 by the end of the year based on chart analysis, and we have seen the persistent – from Tom Lee who won’t let an incorrect prediction bring him down.
The thing is, predictions are an easy game, there are minimal repercussions for getting them wrong – unless you have bet you penis on them like McAfee, who surely won’t go through with the bet if he is wrong. Crypto commentators who have got things wrong in the past have either kept quiet about their call or shrugged their shoulders: “That’s crypto for you.”
But are they necessary? The popularity of them seems to suggest that they are all part and parcel of this crazy cryptocurrency ride, but that is probably because they give hope in a sea of uncertainty. Investors who are heavily in the red for buying at the hype want to know fortunes will change, and if they hold out for Lee’s $20,000+ end of year prediction, they will be back in the black.
Perhaps, instead of predicting the future, we should be encouraging nervy investors to look to the past. So, Bitcoin is down $1,000 today, and you feel sick to your stomach? Well, remember just over two years ago when Bitcoin was worth only $1,000 total?
Gold was also worth about $1,000 two-and-a-bit years ago, and interestingly, it has seen a massive spike in its price graph since then. So, know how much you would have made if you invested that same $1,000 into an ounce of Gold and not Bitcoin? $500… Still, it’s a fifty percent return, but Bitcoin has had a 1,000 percent gains at the same time.