We recently told you about an important case that was ongoing, the results of which could have powerful implications for decentralized justice and Kleros. Here’s a quick summary.
The following prediction market was started on Omen, with Kleros as the arbitrator:
Will there be a day with at least 1000 reported Corona death in the US in the first 14 days of July?
This question has become what’s known as case 302.
The question sparked a lot of questions and controversy because the results of the market rely on statistics, and it doesn’t specify a source. There were many news sources that are regarded as reputable reporting differing figures. Some were showing that there were no days with more than 1,000 deaths, but other sources had reported days with more than 1,000 deaths.
Naturally the argument was split into two sides, both arguing why their ‘yes’ or ‘no’ choice was correct, but ultimately the result was going to be left to decentralized arbitration. Which meant there were a lot of eyes on this case – literally. Even Vitalik was keeping watch.
There’s been a development
Since we last wrote about this case, things have developed. Prediction markets on Omen are linked to realitio, so once a market reaches resolution time, a bond process starts which allows people to ‘vote’ for their desired outcome.
The first bond sets the stage, with a minimum of 0.01 ETH. From there, if someone wants to overwrite the answer they have to post a bond with double the amount of the previous bond. Once a bond has stood for 24 hours, a resolution is reached. Once a resolution is reached, those that posted a bond for the winning outcoming will receive ETH from the losing side.
The alternative is for someone to pay an arbitration fee, which is 35 ETH. Once that fee is paid the bond process ends and the outcome will then rely on the chosen arbitrator.
The bond process began on the above Corona Virus death question, quickly reaching a whopping 42 ETH bond for ‘no’. The next step was either an 84 ETH bond for ‘yes’ or ‘invalid’, or alternatively someone could pay the 35 ETH arbitrator fee to take the resolution to the chosen arbitrator, Kleros Court. This is what happened, and case 302 went live on the Kleros platform.
Since then, things have been getting heated. You can view the arguments for the ‘yes’ side here and for the ‘no’ side here.
We’ve already seen Vitalik taking an interest, and there have been some other big names voicing their opinions about infamous case 302.
Balaji Srinivasan, an angel investor and former CTO of Coinbase, took to Twitter to highlight the case and the impact it could have.
Martin Köppelmann, Founder of prediction market platform gnosis, has been extremely active on Twitter during the development of this case. He believes that ‘no’ would have been the better outcome for Omen. You can read his reasoning here.
Where will it end?
The resolution of this case came down to the jurors on the Kleros platform.
In fact, a majority has been reached, and ‘Yes’ was determined as the outcome.
There has been some outrage and disappointment about the result so far, but was it so unexpected? There was a Twitter poll that suggested more favored yes than no.
*This article has been sponsored. The Daily Chain encourages you to carry out your own research before you make any form of investment and educate yourself about how to stay safe in the crypto space.
