One of the most Googled questions surrounding the cryptocurrency space is: “What will Bitcoin’s price be?” This calls for all manner of predictions in the Bitcoin market, something that has become part and parcel of the space.
Some of these predictions seen over the years have been rather ridiculous, while some have come to be a bit more accurate. But one thing is for sure, it is nearly impossible to predict the price of Bitcoin. The asset is subject to macroeconomics, in some sense, and falls under technical chart analysis, but because of its nascent nature, it often goes against the predetermined move.
Bitcoin is also a highly volatile asset which leads predictions to usually fail spectacularly. The price of the coin can be down 100 percent one day, and up that same amount the next. It has however been mostly on an upward trajectory which has led to many predictors putting big price tags on the coin.
From Tom Lee and his ever optimistic predictions to John McAfee stating that Bitcoin will reach $1 million, the predictions have caught the attention of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin who has pointed them out to show how wrong, and dangerous, they can be.
A social incentive
Buterin decided to dig up past predictions from certain cryptocurrency bulls over the last 2-5 years that turned out to be very wrong in order to show that there should be some sort of accountability and repercussion for spouting such predictions.
To begin with, Buterin showed that both bullish and bearish predictions can both be very wrong in the Bitcoin market. He pulled up John McAfee’s $1 million predictions, but also highlighted how famed Doomsday predictor and anti-Bitcoiner Nouriel Roubini were both off the mark.
Part of the problem with making such bold predictions is that Bitcoin investors are in the very nature of the asset, speculators. There is not much concrete evidence about the market, and there is quite a cult-following of certain commentators. Thus, they have a lot of sway to influence investors, and can lead them down dangerous decisions.
“This is why I think digging up over-confident predictions people made 2-5 years ago that turned out horribly wrong and laughing at them is a great custom to have. We need at least social incentive to say things that are sane, and we need to be reminded of everyone’s fallibility,” Buterin explained