As if to highlight the difficulty in predicting the price of Bitcoin, and to show how varied Bitcoin’s price can be in a relatively short space of time Social Capital CEO and former Facebook executive Chamath Palihapitiya, who was an early Bitcoin investor, has predicted that Bitcoin could reach $1 million, per coin, or it could go to zero.
Bitcoin’s market, despite being technically over 10 years old, is still trying to find its feet in both its own use cases, as well as where it finds itself as a nascent and emerging asset in traditional markets. Bitcoin has grown to be a firm favourite of some Wall Street types, as its correlated collapse in mid-March proved.
As it stands Bitcoin’s price is relatively low for where it has found itself before, but it has certainly matured as an asset and has become more popular with investors which many feel will help push its price up. That being said, it is unsure as to how high Bitcoin will go, and if it could indeed reach the highs of $1 million any time soon.
Waiting for mass adoption
The most recent adoption that has spiked over the years has certainly been institutional adoption as many big name investors have been happy to put some of their portfolios aside for Bitcoin or to use the ever-growing amount of financial products, such as CME’s futures options.
In a recent discussion with Morgan Creek Digital Partner Anthony Pompliano, Palihapitiya said he thinks Bitcoin is still too volatile for mass adoption today. Palihapitiya believes the chances for Bitcoin to succeed as a global reserve currency has increased over the past few months.
“It’s still a speculative instrument, and it’s too speculative for it to be reliable,” said Palihapitiya. “If you’re going to make the case that it should replace fiat currency, one thing you have to look at is the volatility of the U.S. dollar. You can’t replace it with something that’s nine sigma more volatile. It doesn’t work.”
“Extreme volatility pushes Bitcoin into this ghetto of day traders and speculators,” added Palihapitiya. “And, right now, that’s where we are. We’re in that ghetto.”
Million or bust
Still, the good news is, even amid a crisis which could devalue the dollar, there is a chance that Bitcoin can profit and boost options for individuals.
“We are driving, slowly but we are driving, towards a cliff,” said Palihapitiya about the current global financial situation. “And then, we’re going to drive much, much faster down that cliff or down that hill. And at the end of it is a huge brick wall.”
“The path dependence for Bitcoin is if it looks like debasement is likely, it will really emerge as a flight to safety,” added Palihapitiya.
“This is either zero or it’s millions,” said Palihapitiya.