It is now just over a week to go until the bitcoin mining reward halving comes into play for the third time in the coin’s history. It is a major event, and an even that has a lot of mystery around it. People are interested in what the effect will be to the Bitcoin market price, but many feel they know how it will impact the mining ecosystem.
The thing is, because the mining halving immediately cuts the profitability of Bitcoin mining in half, there is a major blow dealt, but that blow is easier to understand than the macroeconomic factors that will come into play in affecting the price.
More so, the community has already seen what happens with a halving on the Bitcoin chain when two of the forks — Bitcoin Cash, and Bitcoin SV — had their halvings in April. These halving saw big capitulation for the mining ecosystem, but can we expect the same for Bitcoin?
Poolin, one of the larger mining pools in the world, has released its data on what they expect to happen with regard to Bitcoin capitulation and a lot of it has to do with the mining equipment upgrade that has come to play this year.
What to expect?
While the majority of eyes will be on how Bitcoin’s price moves, it is also very important to watch the hash rate of Bitcoin — which recently crossed a new all time high despite a recent difficulty drop following the March price collapse.
“There is little doubt among researchers and industry experts that the hashrate is going to drop significantly when the block subsidy gets cut in half. Blockware Solutions recently released a report arguing that the halving will lighten sales pressure as older equipment and higher electricity costs squeeze out inefficient competitors,” a post from Alejandro De La Torre of Poolin said.
“The question is how much hashrate will come offline? As pool operators, we don’t receive any information on miners’ electricity costs so we can’t know exactly what that number will be, but by breaking down hashrate distribution we can look at which miners have the highest risk of shutting down.”
Above, is Poolin.com’s total hashrate divided into two-terahash intervals. The sections of the pie chart represent the percentages of total output for each range in the lower quartile. The lower quartile of network hashrate because this is the highest risk area where miners’ profit margins are tightest.
“We estimate that the miners in this range account for approximately 15 percent – 30 percent of the Bitcoin network’s overall hashrate. While we expect most of these miners will shut down after the halving, it is likely that some of them have cheap enough electricity to survive in the near future.”