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Santiment: Unibright (UBT) bucks the trend, hits ATH. Can the run continue?

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While Bitcoin (+0.3%) and, by extension, most of the crypto market have been treading water over the past 24 hours, not all altcoins seem to have gotten the memo.

In fact, we’re seeing a number of unsuspecting altcoins gain steam over the past few days, entirely bucking the market-wide trend and charting its own path upwards. 

One of the biggest breakout coins over the last 7 days – Unibright (UBT) – is up a staggering +83.2% for the week, and is sitting at an all-time-high of $0.337599 at the time of writing:

The price of UBT (green) vs the price of BTC (brown), last 3 months (Source: Sanbase)

And while it’s still too early to call an all-out altcoin season, we wanted to take a closer look at Unibright’s on-chain and social data, to try and find out whether the coin’s breakout is truly sustainable, or if the massive correction could be around the corner.

So let’s jump right into it:

Network Activity

In terms of its on-chain activity, Unibright has been flashing a number of ‘yellow’ flags over the past few days. First off, we’re seeing a concerning divergence materialize between UBT’s price – which continues to push upward – and its overall network activity which has slowly started to decline.

In particular, the amount of daily addresses interacting with UBT has shrunk by 24% over the last 3 days, suggesting a gradual return to the network’s pre-pump activity levels. Similarly, the amount of new addresses holding UBT is also in the middle of a retraction, falling by 50% in the last 3 days.

This growing divergence between a coin’s price action and its on-chain activity can be a strong indicator of an incoming correction, and has already occurred during several of UBT’s recent tops: 

UBT’s daily active addresses, last 3 months (Source: Sanbase)

New addresses created on the UBT network, last 3 months (Source: Sanbase)

Similarly, the amount of value transferred on the UBT network is also in a week-long decline, with its daily on-chain transaction volume reduced by 32.6% since April 21st:

UBT’s on-chain transaction volume, last 3 months (Source: Sanbase)

Despite these drop-offs, however, the amount of activity on the UBT network still remains relatively high – likely enough to support another leg up. That said, I’d keep an eye on these three metrics over the next few days – should we see the divergences continue, it will likely spell trouble for the coin’s rally.

As for whether UBT’s holders are – on average – accumulating or actively moving their coins, the latter seems to be the case over the last week. After more than a month, UBT’s mean coin age has recently started to decline again, indicating that the average amount of time that each coin spent in its current address is getting smaller. In other words, the accumulation period is over, and holders are actively moving their UBT bags. 

The declining coin age slope has preceded several recent UBT tops, and seems to have prompted the April 25th correction as well. Should the slope continue to decay, it might prove difficult for UBT to sustain an extended rally.

UBT’s mean coin age, last 3 months (Source: Sanbase)

Holder Behavior

Another early warning sign is the recent behavior of UBT’s biggest non-exchange addresses, a.k.a. whales. 

Over on Sanbase, you can track the collective balance of the top 100 addresses holding any ERC-20 token, and toggle between exchange and non-exchange addresses. Within the UBT’s top 100 addresses, those not belonging to exchanges have offloaded ~4,000,000 UBT in the last 7 days alone. 

Similar ‘whale dumping’ trends were observed during several of UBT’s previous tops, as you can see below:

Collective balance of UBT’s biggest non-exchange addresses, last 6 months (Source: Sandata)

There is one important caveat this time around, however: the previous ‘dumps’ performed by UBT whales always correlated with the increase of UBT located in the biggest exchange wallets – signaling that the whales were looking to cash out. 

This time, however, we see no such spike in the amount of UBT found in the biggest exchange wallets, indicating that the recent whale moves may not in fact be prompted by their desire to sell.

Collective balance of UBT’s biggest exchange addresses, last 6 months (Source: Sandata)

Looking at the recent behavior of UBT holders, those owning between 100k and 1m UBT seem  to have a particular impact on the coin’s price action. Similar to whales, these addresses also moved parts of their UBT bags right before each of the coin’s previous tops, before the coin started correcting. 

At the moment, however, this group of UBT holders is yet to show signs of worry, or exhibit any attempts to reduce their position: 

Combined balance of all addresses holding 100k-1m UBT, last 6 months (Source: Sandata)

Exchange Activity

In terms of the amount of speculative interest in UBT, we’re not seeing a significant uptick in the amount of UBT flowing to exchanges over the past few days. 

The latest spike occurred right before the correction on April 25th, when 882,000 UBT were moved to centralized exchange wallets. Since then, however, UBT’s exchange inflow  has mostly plateaued, indicating a lack of rising sell pressure despite the ongoing pump – which should bode well for the coin’s short-term price potential:

Inflow of UBT to centralized exchange wallets, last 3 months (Source: Sanbase)

In fact, the amount of UBT located on exchanges has been decreasing ever since the start of the rally, which could help at least partly explain the ongoing pump: the amount of active UBT supply to trade with/for continues to diminish, pushing the value/price of the remaining available coins upward. 

We’ve seen this same exact pattern occur during UBT’s February rally. As you can see below, the share of UBT’s total supply on exchanges hit a six-month high 17.5% on February 8th, right at UBT’s local bottom. 

Over the next 10 days, however, the share of UBT’s supply on exchanges dwindled to 15.4% – during the same time, UBT’s price grew by over 292.5%:

% of UBT’s total circulating supply located on centralized exchanges, last 6 months (Source: Sanbase)

You can observe this same pattern in our exchange flow balance metric, which calculates the difference between the amount of coins going in and out of exchange wallets. Right before both the February and April rally, UBT’s withdrawals dwarfed its exchange-bound deposits, signalling a diminishing supply of the coins available to trade with:

Difference between UBT flowing in and out of centralized exchanges, last 6 months (Source: Sandata)

For now, the share of UBT’s total supply on centralized exchanges continues to diminish – with a slight bounceback correlating with its April 25th correction. Keep an eye on this metric over the next few days – if we see a growing supply of UBT on exchanges, the rising sell pressure could prove difficult for the UBT bulls to absorb.

Crowd mood

Finally, let’s take a look at the UBT’s social data and what it suggests about the coin’s short-term potential.

According to Sanbase, there’s been an elevated amount of mentions of ‘UBT’ and Unibright’ on crypto social media today, which isn’t too promising given that these types of social spikes often preceded mid-term corrections in the past:

Amount of UBT mentions on crypto social media, last 3 months (Source: Sanbase)

That said, the latest spike in UBT-related chatter seems to have a distinct flavor.

First off, most new mentions appear to be stemming from Telegram, and few trade-focused groups in particular. According to our sentiment algorithm, the latest spike in UBT mentions seems to take on increasingly bearish undertones – completely unlike the crowd’s mood during its previous tops:

UBT-related sentiment on Telegram, last year (Source: Graphs by Santiment)

The above charts portrays the average UBT-related sentiment on Telegram and shows massive spikes in bullish sentiment during the coin’s January, February and March tops, respectively. At the moment, however, the crowd appears to be turning increasingly bearish towards UBT, growing more negative as the price charts new highs. 

This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, however. As you can see on the chart, extremely positive sentiment is often followed by a quick correction, as the crowd reaches peak hype and people start exiting the coin in bulk. At the moment, UBT’s social data suggests we’re still ways away from reaching ‘peak hype’, which could prove helpful in sustaining the coin’s rally.

In conclusion, UBT’s on-chain and social data is starting to show some concerning signals, although there’s still some reason to be skeptical that the correction is imminent. As I mentioned, the coin’s network-wide activity is declining – and fairly quickly at that, but the current levels could still prove enough to support another leg up.

I’d look for an increasingly prominent divergence between UBT’s price and its daily active addresses, accompanied by significant spikes in the amount of UBT flowing to exchanges. This – paired with extreme social volumes – could indicate the final end of this massive rally.

Final Notes

This report was produced using Santiment’s growing suite of market and network analytics tools – Sanbase and Sandata – which help users analyze the crypto market and find data-driven investment opportunities.

Santiment provides clean and reliable on-chain, social media and development information on over 1000 crypto assets, and develops unique metrics, signals, strategies and reports on top of our custom datasets.

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