One of the most hotly discussed areas of cryptocurrency going into 2020 is just what the mining reward halving will do for Bitcoin. In May, Bitcoin is set to reduce the incoming supply of coins from mining by a staggering 50 percent.
This action, as part of Bitcoin’s anti-inflationary properties, is intended to up demand with a lessening supply. And, due to macroeconomic fundamentals, it is expected that the lowered supply will also lead to higher prices.
Looking back historically, the last two Bitcoin halvings have seen the price of the coins grow substantially as the supply has lessened, but this year is a very different one in the evolution of Bitcoin. The coin has become far more mainstream, institutionalised, and has garnered much more attention – so, will it behave the same as the last two occurrences?
Not yet priced in
One argument against the halving having a significant effect on the price of Bitcoin after the May deadline is that the increase in price may well already be factored in. In anticipation of the halving, many people start buying up Bitcoin while it is still cheap. This could have happened during Q2 of last year when Bitcoin rose from the doldrums of the $3,000 mark.
However, for the Winklevoss Twins, who have made their name in cryptocurrency following the Facebook debacle of a few years ago, the belief is that the price rise is rarely ever priced in before it happens.
According to a Forbes journalist, during a talk at the Crypto Finance Conference in St Moritz, the twins remarked that Bitcoin’s upcoming halving in May “will be big for Bitcoin.”
“The halvening (in May) will be big for #bitcoin. It’s rarely priced in,” Billy Bambrough reported.
Chance of no effect
While the Winklevoss Twins are fairly certain the halving will have an effect, there is an argument the other way. The idea of macroeconomic fundamentals playing their part could be disproven by this one theory:
Messari, a blockchain research firm, has said that because Bitcoin is a “perfectly inelastic good.” it won’t be moved by a change in supply unless there is another factor to push its demand.
More so, Coinshares CSO Meltem Demirors has also chimed in that the halving won’t play a role:
“There is a very real possibility the price of bitcoin does not go up after halving.
for the first time, there is a robust derivative (futures, options) market for bitcoin. most firms looking to speculate on Bitcoin will trade a derivative, not the underlying,” she explained in a tweet